Wednesday, December 23

Swabeng Thoughts: The 2015 Stock Market, Bears on Parade and Why I Hold instead of Yield.

As the Stock Market goes on Christmas Holiday, it went up again for the 3rd straight day breaking the 7000 barrier (7,002.42 to be exact). I'd also recall that it also had a good run before the Christmas break making most of us happy with our respective gains. 

Thinking that 2015 would be the continuation of what the 2014 Bull Run had, it went on a different direction after the first 3 months. It started with PSEI at 7277 (on January 5), then it broke record after record until it reached 8127 (on April 10) gaining 11.68%. Then it went south even to as low as 6791 (on August 24). Imagine a 16.43% change (loss) from its peak to its bottom before it went sideways as of the moment. 

Even if most of the news coming out related to the Stock Market were positive, the only thing we encounter is a sell down after sell down. If you're a member of most Stock Investing/Trading Groups like TAP, Tsupitero, FTGZ, etal, you'd be able to see what I'm talking about. They sell mostly on good news. 

If you take a look at the graph below, note its climb breaking all time high after all time high. It was followed by Net Foreign Selling after Net Foreign Selling making us local investors worried. Traders would see this oppportunity to make their gains but for those who are into investing like I do, it would be a different case. 

PSEI as of December 23

If I knew it would peak on the 10th of April, I could have cashed in my profit and wait for it to bottom. But we can never exactly predict when it will bottom nor when it will peak. 

I can show you some graphs of the Stocks I'm holding so you'd be able to have an idea if I'm on a losing ground or gaining some. Take note that the graphs here are YTD (year to date) meaning from the first trading day of 2015 up to the latest. Charts are from Big Charts

1. Jollibee (JFC): This was the first stock I've bought when I was starting to invest. Jollibee is one of the stocks that is included in the PSEI and it is categorized as a Blue Chip Stock. Why did I decided to buy this stock. First, this is one of the mostly used example when being discussed in books and in online by financial experts. Second, twenty to thirty years from now when Marien would be on her own, this would still stand the test of time and maybe my daughter would have her meal there with her friends one day.

JFC as of December 23

2. Max's (MAXS): This would be my next JFC in 5-20 years time. This fast casual dining scenario may take over the fast food industry maybe in a few years time and by then, this may touch the 100 pesos/share range or even higher. 

MAXS as of December 23

3. 8990 Holding (HOUSE): I like its business model and its goal of having a zero backlog in housing by offering affordable housing to the working middle class. They already have existing projects in Cavite as well as in Angles, Pampangga and also downsouth. Imagine owning your own home for less than a million pesos compared to its other counterparts (ALI, MEG, VLL, GERI). Even I myself consider to own one unit from them someday.  

HOUSE as of December 23

4. Global Ferronickel Holdings (FNI): This is the first speculative (mining) stock that I've bought (maybe my last for the time being). Even it went downwards, I kept on averaging down (can be considered a mistake). Unless it goes FOO (Follow-On Offering) or Nickel prices worldwide recovers, its downtrend would continue. And by the time it's ready for reversal, I have more than enough cash to but at the bottom. I could have cut my losses after buying some more at 1.00 pesos/share (I'm currently at 57% loss on this stock) I don't have any plans on putting my money somewhere. But now, instead of averaging down and further deepen my losses, I'll wait for the bottom if there is one. hehe. 

FNI as of December 23

5. D & L Industries Inc (DNL): This is one of the most loved stock when I stared investing. Good thing I was able to buy at a low though this stock has been battered for the past few weeks. One of its clients include Jollibee so I'm sure this would go back up where it belongs. This stock has a makings of being included in the list of Blue Chip as it has been included in some of the Small Cap Stocks in other countries. 

DNL as of December 23

6. SSI Group Inc (SSI): It was a few weeks after its IPO when I started buying this stock. While it was promising at the first half of this year, it went sliding down towards the second half of the year making it the next FNI (as other traders would describe). My losses here is at 67% though I'm not yielding yet. Rather, I'd wait for the bottom and until all 200 Family Mart Stores to be fully operational. I forgot that this stock is responsible for Rustan's (remember Starbucks). 

SSI as of December 23

I didn't include the 7th one since it went IPO just a few months back as well as other stocks that I've used to had only to sell them to reduce my portfolio to a few names. While you'd notice most of the graphs are on a downward trend, I have one that gained just a little for the time being. 

While most traders are cutting their losses, I'd rather keep mine for now as I have a high tolerance for losses. Meaning, I might lose all 100% of my portfolio yet I won't cringe nor cry over it but I'll learn from that experience.

I wonder how 2016 would be given the upcoming 2016 Presidental Elections and what Robert Kiyosaki has predicted a 2016 crash. Oh well, I'm keeping my cash with me until then.


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